After two wins from two on MD11, Tom Carnduff has found three goalscorers for the latest round of Bundesliga games.
Soccer Betting Tips: Bundesliga
1pt Niclas Füllkrug scores anytime at Werder Bremen vs Hertha Berlin at 11/8 (Unibet)
1pt Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting scores anytime Bayern Munich vs Mainz 7/5 (bet365)
1pt Jude Bellingham scores anytime at Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund at 13/2 (William Hill)
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Werder Bremen versus Hertha Berlin
- 19:30 CET, Friday
- Television: Sky Sports Mix
Werder Bremen’s positive start to the season has taken a bit of a hit as they lost their last two, but they will welcome a home game against Hertha Berlin as they look to return to winning ways.
The hosts have shown their attacking prowess, only Bayern Munich, Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig have scored more goals – 20 of them at 16.3 xG.
It’s appealing to support this team, keep firing and carry on the 11/8 NICLAS FILLER JUG TO MEET ANYTIME looks too generous as this pick looks like a good shot based on form to date.
Füllkrug has had an excellent return rate this season with eight goals and two assists in his 11 games so far.
That’s coming from 7.30 xG, so the odds match the numbers, with a very strong .66 xG/95 alongside 3.14 shots and 1.17 efforts on target.
Bremen’s home form still needs improvement, but they’ve scored at least half of their goals in front of their home crowd.
The situation is similar for Füllkrug, who scored four of his eight goals in a familiar environment. Against this Hertha side, the value is in supporting him to reach his ninth goal of the season.
Bayern Munich versus Mainz
FC Bayern Munich’s good form in the Champions League continued Wednesday night with victory over Barcelona.
They have stabilized after a shaky period in September and are back on track to return to the top of the Bundesliga.
Mainz beat Bayern last season but this game in Munich should produce Julian Nagelsmann’s side with all three points.
With 12 points from six away games, Mainz even has the best away record in the division so far. However, eight of their 13 goals conceded came in those games.
It’s worth targeting and taking a player in shape here ERIC MAXIM CHOUPO-MOTING TO CAKE ANYTIME.
The striker scored in midweek’s win against Barcelona and extended his scoring streak to four games. Five goals have been scored during this time because Bayern have found some structure again with a real striker in the team.
He’s only recently started in the starting XI, but that means he’s averaging 0.32 xG per league game, with 1.80 shots and 1.35 of those on target.
Considering Bayern are favorites to win at 2/9, it’s a surprise to see 7/5 available at all times on their starting forward network.
Eintracht Frankfurt versus Borussia Dortmund
- 17:30 CET, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
Both teams are great picks for Saturday’s late game and are in the top-5 after positive seasons so far.
Borussia Dortmund will be confident in view of this 0-0 against Manchester City Midweek, however, Frankfurt’s Champions League win extended their winning streak to four games in all competitions.
This victory over Marseille kept their hopes of a place in the round of 16 alive, while they could do so even as Group D winners.
The outright market is difficult to call, but taking the 13/2 best available price is appealing JUDE BELLINGHAM TO MEET ANYTIME.
He didn’t find the net midweek but could easily have done so if his teammates had found him in good shooting positions. The breakaway in the first half is the best example of this.
The midfielder has scored eight goals in 18 games in all competitions this season but it’s odd that only two of those have come in the Bundesliga if we consider the underlying numbers.
Bellingham averages .26 xG/95, with 2.44 shots and .81 on goal.
Although Frankfurt were good, they conceded with their 18 goals, which puts them in the top half in this statistic.
They also face a Dortmund side who have averaged 1.76 xG per home game this season, with 1.88 xG in the Bundesliga.
Bundesliga: The best bets on the weekend
- 1pt Niclas Füllkrug scores anytime at Werder Bremen vs Hertha Berlin at 11/8 (Unibet)
- 1pt Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting scores anytime Bayern Munich vs Mainz 7/5 (bet365)
- 1pt Jude Bellingham scores anytime at Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund at 13/2 (William Hill)
Odds correct at 1050 BST (10/27/22)
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