By Derek Cai and Annabelle LiangBBC News
6 hours ago
Image source: Getty Images
Artificial intelligence has turned out to be of such concern that it made it onto the already packed agenda at the weekend’s G7 summit.
Currently, the US appears to be ahead in the AI race. And there’s already a possibility that the current restrictions on semiconductor exports to China could hamper Beijing’s technological advances.
However, according to analysts, China could catch up as it takes years to perfect AI solutions. Chinese internet companies “arguably are more advanced than US internet companies, depending on how you measure progress,” Kendra Schaefer, head of technology policy research at Trivium China, told the BBC.
However, she says China’s “ability to produce high-quality equipment and components lags behind world leaders by an estimated 10 to 15 years.”
The Silicon Valley Factor
The greatest advantage of the USA is Silicon Valley, arguably the most important entrepreneurial hotspot in the world. It is the birthplace of tech giants like Google, Apple and Intel that have helped shape modern life.
The country’s unique research culture has helped innovators in the country, says Pascale Fung, director of the Center for Artificial Intelligence Research at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
Researchers often spend years trying to improve a technology without having a product in mind, Ms Fung says.
For example, OpenAI has been a nonprofit for years researching the Transformers machine learning model that eventually powered ChatGPT.
“This environment never existed in most Chinese companies. They didn’t develop deep learning systems or large language models until they saw the popularity,” she adds. “This is a fundamental challenge for Chinese AI.”
US investors also supported the country’s research offensive. In 2019, Microsoft announced it would invest $1 billion (£810,000) in OpenAI.
“AI is one of the most transformative technologies of our time and has the potential to help solve many of the world’s most pressing challenges,” said Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella.
China’s edge
China, meanwhile, is benefiting from a larger consumer base. It is the second most populous country in the world and is home to about 1.4 billion people.
There’s also a thriving internet sector, says Edith Yeung, a partner at investment firm Race Capital.
Almost everyone in the country uses the super app WeChat, for example. It’s used for almost everything from texting to booking doctor’s appointments to filing taxes.
This provides a wealth of information that can be used to improve products. “The AI model will only be as good as the data it can learn from,” says Ms. Yeung.
“For better or worse, China has a lot less privacy rules and a lot more data [compared to the US]. “There’s CCTV facial recognition everywhere, for example,” she adds. “Imagine how useful that would be for AI-generated imagery.”
While China’s tech community appears to be lagging behind the US, its developers have a head start, according to Lee Kai-Fu, who makes the point in his book AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order.
“You live in a world where speed is of the essence, copying is an accepted practice, and competitors will stop at nothing to break into a new market,” wrote Mr. Lee, a prominent figure in Beijing’s internet sector and former head of Google China.
“This turbulent environment is in stark contrast to Silicon Valley, where copying is stigmatized and many companies are allowed to get away based on an original idea or a stroke of luck.”
China’s copycat era has its problems, including serious problems related to intellectual property. Mr. Lee writes that this has resulted in a generation of resilient and nimble entrepreneurs ready to take on the competition.
Since the 1980s, China has been expanding its economy, which used to be primarily based on manufacturing, into a technology-based economy, says Ms. Fung.
“In the last decade, we’ve seen more innovation from Chinese consumer-centric internet companies and high-quality Chinese designs,” she adds.
While Chinese tech companies certainly have unique advantages, the full impact of Beijing’s authoritarianism remains unclear.
For example, there are questions about whether censorship would affect the development of Chinese AI chatbots. Will they be able to answer sensitive questions about President Xi Jinping?
“I don’t think anyone in China will ask controversial questions about Baidu or Ernie. They know it’s going to be censored,” says Ms. Yeung. “Sensitive topics account for a very small proportion of usage [of chatbots]. They just get more media attention,” Ms. Fung adds.
The bigger concern is that US attempts to restrict China’s access to specialized technology could hamper its AI industry.
High-performance computer chips or semiconductors are now causing great tension between Washington and Beijing. They are used in everyday products like laptops and smartphones and could have military applications. They are also critical to the hardware required for AI learning.
US companies like Nvidia are currently leaders in the development of AI chips and “only a few.” [Chinese] “Enterprises can compete with ChatGPT given the export restrictions,” says Ms. Fung.
While this will affect China’s high-tech industries like cutting-edge AI, it will not affect the production of consumer technologies like cellphones and laptops. Because “the export controls are intended to prevent China from developing advanced AI for military purposes,” says Ms. Schaefer.
To overcome this, China needs its own Silicon Valley — a research culture that attracts talent from diverse backgrounds, says Ms Fung.
“Until now, both domestic talent and those from abroad with Chinese roots have been relied on. There are limits to homogeneous cultural thinking,” she adds.
Beijing is trying to bridge the gap through its “Big Fund,” which offers massive stimulus to chip companies.
Beijing’s focus on specific industries can bring financial stimulus and reduce bureaucracy, but it can also mean greater scrutiny, fear and uncertainty.
“Zhao’s arrest sends a message to other state-owned companies: don’t mess with state funds, especially in the chip space,” Ms. Schaefer said. “Now it’s time to get on with the work.”
How this message will affect the future of China’s AI industry remains to be seen.
