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Some years the number 1 is set in stone like Trevor Lawrence in 2021, Joe Burrow in 2020, Kyler Murray in 2019 and Myles Garrett in 2017.
In other seasons like 2022 there is a lot of speculation and recalibration until the draft itself. Aidan Hutchinson was the consensus #1 pick midway through the drafting process last season.
The Jaguars probably resent the fact that they picked Travon Walker over Hutchinson, but that happens quite often with players who pump their draft boards up for measurable rather than production reasons.
In 2023, Bryce Young was the favorite for the #1 overall pick throughout the process. In fact, he still leads at -160 at DraftKings and is the favorite at all sportsbooks. However, there is a lot of buzz that Anthony Richardson (currently tied in third place at +550) could outperform Young with a 40-yard dash under 4.4 at the combine.
Buyers should be wary of Richardson: he has elite qualities but messy footwork and poor accuracy. In my opinion, any team that wants these traits should pay particular attention to the quarterback’s interviews for their speed of processing and talk to his former coaches about how quickly he absorbs new information.
One thing that stood out about Patrick Mahomes in college was that he took his own precautions; that could have been something that predicted his potential NFL success. Josh Allen is also very cerebral about the QB position. While Zach Wilson has a strong work ethic by any measure, it also seems that he’s never improved on his processing speed. That could be something that any team contemplating drafting Richardson should look into closely.
Also in talks for number 1 are CJ Stroud (+380) and Will Levis (+550).
WR props
It’s difficult to figure out who is the best receiver in this draft. Quentin Johnston is the favorite at +110 while Jordan Addison is second at +265. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Garrett Wilson’s former Ohio State teammate, is third at +330.
According to many draft forecasters, there aren’t any receivers in this year’s draft worth real top picks. However, given the receiver position premium and the reported insane cost of WRs in the free agent market, I would expect several teams to reach for receivers somewhat due to necessity.
However, it is difficult to predict which recipient they will prefer.
Stetson Bennett Draft Prop
Stetson Bennett is older than Quinnen Williams.
Leave that on for a minute.
Quinnen is entering his fifth year in the league while Bennett is a draft contender.
The odds of where Bennett goes are interesting. He’s +120 not getting drafted at all, +175 for 7th round, +300 6th, +550 5th, up to +7500 for 1st round.
If I had to bet on it, I’d go with +120. I don’t think Bennett will be drafted. He’s one of those collegiate successes that I think will struggle to find its place at the NFL level.
Also, details of Bennett’s arrest in January are still emerging, which won’t make things any easier for him. Unlike Jalen Carter, whose incident was reportedly much more serious but who is a top talent, Bennett has already stacked the cards against him.
RB risk?
RBSDM is the name of a statistical programming package for NFL data. It stands for Running Backs Don’t Matter. While that’s an overstatement, the prevailing analytical narrative is that you shouldn’t draft a running back high. Most analysis gurus will criticize last season’s pick of Breece Hall (although at Jet X we might see things differently).
This year, Bijan Robinson is widely considered an even better prospect than Breece, which is saying something given Hall’s relative athletic score of 9.96 and 4.39 40-yard dash. Which team will design Bijan?
At DraftKings, the Philadelphia Eagles are the favorites to pick Robinson at +300. It’s a little scary imagining the Eagles with Jalen Hurts and Robinson on the same field.
However, Howie Roseman is known for being a little ahead of the curve analytically, so it remains to be seen whether he would invest significant draft capital in a running back. Still, Miles Sanders, the current Eagles running back who is a free agent, was a second-round pick.
Other teams in the running are the Bills (+500, with Devin Singletary as a free agent, a prospect the Jets don’t want to consider), Cowboys (+650, with Tony Pollard a UFA) and Falcons (+750).
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