Data
It would hardly be an exaggeration to say that the future of mobility rests on the shoulders of data. Success in this sector over the coming decade will be measured by its ability to capture, leverage and capitalize on the endless tons of driving and traffic data that is produced every day. Municipalities, automakers and micro-mobility start-ups all need to rely on data insights to achieve their mobility goals, from optimizing traffic flow to building and managing smart infrastructure, determining coordinates for new charging stations and e-bike docks to warning drivers of obstacles down the road. The future of transportation is about ease, safety, sustainability and customization, all based on extensive user data.
Speaking to Protocol, Jeremy M. Goldberg, Microsoft’s global director of critical infrastructure, emphasized the importance of integrating data into every phase of the mobility transformation: “IoT devices, vehicles, cameras and all of that is enabling a lot more integration and communication between these modes of transport than ever. We are just beginning to see some of this being implemented by transit companies around the world, and that will certainly be the case in the next 10 years. So that means we should expect real-time management for an entire system.”
Artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence will continue to play a vital role in the next decade of transportation, harnessing data and powering intelligent infrastructure across the sector – but its most anticipated role is in the pursuit of autonomous transit. Time-limiting autonomous vehicles is notoriously risky: After more than 10 years and a $160 billion investment, we’re still driving our own cars, but leading automakers and innovators aren’t giving up on the dream of not driving. The market is crowded with established companies and startups struggling to break through. We’ve seen some promising results in the case of autonomous cargo transit, both on land and at sea, and in October Waymo announced its intention to bring its autonomous taxis to Los Angeles, with existing fleets already operating in Phoenix and San Francisco .
Will you have an autonomous vehicle in your garage by 2032? Maybe not, but over the next 10 years we will see autonomous technologies evolving and being integrated into personal vehicles, public transit, and the transportation of goods around the world.
Universal mobility apps
Imagine your aunt is coming to visit and you want to send a car to pick her up from the airport, but you also need to bike to dry cleaners, monitor traffic so you don’t miss your dinner reservation, and the Take the bus back home and, oh, it might rain. A dream scenario for the One-Stop-Shop Mobility App, also known as Mobility as a Service or MaaS.
MaaS is the idea that all your mobility needs can be handled in one app and paid either per trip or through short- to long-term subscriptions. While the offer is attractive to both locals and tourists, MaaS requires an ambitious mix of public-private partnerships. Not only do all services need to be in the same app, all payments need to be processed in the same place, and all partners need to agree to some level of data sharing to ensure they offer users the most competitive routes and services. The concept of mobility as a service has made strong inroads into the transportation market in recent years, but the next decade will be about perfecting these platforms and bringing them to the public in data-driven cities around the world.
Sustainable aviation fuels
Who wouldn’t want to fly biologically? Sustainable aviation fuels offer a much-needed solution to air travel’s worrying carbon footprint. Perfecting and scaling these low-carbon biofuels, typically produced from natural biomass, will be a top priority in the coming decade.
Last September, the Biden White House announced new executive actions to promote sustainable aviation fuels and the launch of the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge. The challenge aims to reach a production goal of 3 billion gallons of SAF by 2030. For comparison, in 2021 US airlines used a total of 13.78 billion gallons of fuel. The long-term goals are significantly more ambitious: “Achieve at least a 50 percent reduction in life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions compared to conventional fuel” and “Meet the target of providing enough SAF to meet 100 percent of aviation fuel needs by 2050.” Proponents of these Technology recently received an additional boost with the Inflation Reduction Act, which increased the SAF tax credit to between $1.25 and $1.75 per gallon.
The biggest obstacles to achieving these goals are, unsurprisingly, time and cost. Sustainable fuels are currently much more expensive to produce than conventional fuels and not enough people are being made. While this technology will not scale in time to significantly reduce emissions by 2030, the next decade will be a crucial time for perfecting the formula and price point. The first company to succeed in this combination could herald a new era in sustainable air travel.
electrification
Electric vehicles will continue to expand their share of the world market over the next ten years. The upcoming climate targets, further investment in supercharger availability and continued volatility in fuel prices will encourage more consumers to buy their first or second electric vehicle. In a recent Harris poll conducted today by Protocol, 51% of American adults said they would like to buy an electric vehicle as their next personal vehicle. Speaking to Protocol, Kersten Heineke, co-director of the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility, predicted that electric vehicles would soon take over: “In the next 10 years, everyone will buy their first electric vehicle – at least everyone in the western hemisphere. in China and maybe some other Asian countries.”
Of course, electrification is not limited to cars. We can expect other major modes of transport such as trains, buses and planes to become electrified over the next decade and we should not underestimate the advent of e-micromobility. Small electric vehicles are currently making up the bulk of global electrification, thanks largely to their massive popularity in Asia. Other major cities around the world like Paris and Milan are overhauling their infrastructure to give priority to smaller modes of transportation, from bicycles and e-bikes to electric scooters and mopeds. In the next decade, more cities will rethink their infrastructure to support sustainable, electric transportation.
